COVID-19 Texas Weekly Forecast Summary

Background

This report provides a brief summary of the weekly ensemble forecast for Texas from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. In collaboration with the US CDC, our team aggregates COVID-19 forecasts from dozens of teams around the globe. Typically on Wednesday of each week, a summary of the week’s forecasts from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub appear on the official CDC COVID-19 forecasting page.

Every week, teams submit their forecasts to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Each Tuesday, we combine the most recent forecasts from each team into a single “ensemble” forecast of reported COVID-19 cases at the county, state, and national level and deaths at the state and national level. At the moment, we only generate ensemble forecasts for four weeks into the future, as the available evidence suggests that models are less accurate at longer forecast horizons.

Weekly reports from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub can be found at this page.

COVID-19 Forecasts

Since the inputs to the ensemble model do not factor in changes in behavior or policy that could have an impact on short-term disease transmission (e.g. school openings or closures, new interventions, governmental policy shift, etc…), the ensemble model itself should not be looked to for specific answers to questions like “what will happen if or when schools open in 2 weeks” because most of the input models are not factoring in these changes. That said, the ensemble model has consistently shown strong predictive performance in predicting mortality, and very few of the many interventions put in place appear to have created dramatic changes in short-term disease transmission that would impact short-term trends in mortality.

State level

This week, our ensemble combined forecasts for Texas from 41 different models.

During periods of relative stability, models in general show broad agreement about the predicted trajectory of the outbreak. However, when there are steep surges or declines in cases or deaths, models often have quite different predictions for the upcoming weeks. The result is that there is increased uncertainty in the ensemble forecast, which can be seen as wider confidence intervals in the forecast visualization. You can explore the full set of models, including their forecasts for past weeks online at CDC’s interactive forecast visualization.

When interpreting probability of an increase, it’s important to note that the increase or decrease is relative to the location-specific recent observed incidence, which varies across locations.

Deaths

At the state level, the ensemble model predicts that weekly totals of observed deaths in each of the next four weeks will be between 1,741 and 1,901 deaths each week with around 65,490 total deaths by October 02. However for the week ending October 02, the ensemble shows substantial uncertainty, with observed deaths between 1,040 and 2,930 deemed possible (95% prediction interval: 1,041 - 2,928).

For state-level death forecasts made over the last 6 weeks in Texas for which observed data are now available, the 95% prediction intervals covered the truth 55% of the time, and the 50% prediction intervals covered the truth 5.5% of the time. The forecasts on average over the last 6 weeks predicted values that were lower than the observed data.

The sortable and searchable death table below shows the total number of reported COVID-19 deaths at the US level and state level for Texas as of Saturday, September 04, 2021 (“Total COVID-19 Deaths”) as well as the rate of reported COVID-19 deaths in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last two weeks and over the next two weeks.

Hospitalizations

The ensemble model predicts that COVID-19 daily hospitalizations will be between 1,240 and 1,745 hospitalizations daily. However for October 04, 2021, the ensemble shows substantial uncertainty, with COVID-19 daily hospitalizations between 450 and 2,899 deemed possible.

For state-level hospitalization forecasts made over the last 6 weeks in Texas for which observed data are now available, the 95% prediction intervals covered the truth 98% of the time, and the 50% prediction intervals covered the truth 29% of the time. The forecasts on average over the last 6 weeks predicted values that were higher than the observed data.

The sortable and searchable hospitalization table below shows the 7 day average hospitalization count and rate of reported COVID-19 hospitalization in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last week (August 29, 2021 to September 04, 2021) and two weeks ahead (September 12, 2021 to September 18, 2021).

Cases

As of September 6, 2021 the ensemble forecast for cases only reports up to two-week ahead forecasts, due to persistent large inaccuracies observed in larger forecasts.

For the week ending September 18, the ensemble model predicts that weekly totals of observed cases in each of the next two weeks will be between 126,460 and 131,160 cases each week. However for the week ending October 02, the ensemble shows substantial uncertainty, with observed cases between 71,500 and 182,500 deemed possible (95% prediction interval: 71,473 - 182,464).

For state-level case forecasts made over the last 6 weeks in Texas for which observed data are now available, the 95% prediction intervals covered the truth 81% of the time, and the 50% prediction intervals covered the truth 54% of the time.

Figure 2: Weekly observed and forecasted COVID-19 cases. Observed data from JHU CSSE and forecasts from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

The sortable and searchable case table below shows the weekly case count and rate of reported COVID-19 case in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last week (August 29, 2021 to September 04, 2021) and two weeks ahead (September 12, 2021 to September 18, 2021).

County level

County-level forecasts are only made for cases. County-level case forecasts are presented below.

Cases reported in unknown counties or by people who reside outside of the state are not included in Table 3, but are included in the state-level data.

Select a County

The sortable and searchable table below shows the total number of reported COVID-19 cases at the county level for Texas as of Saturday,September 04, 2021 (“Total COVID-19 Cases”) as well as the rate of reported COVID-19 cases in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last two weeks and over the next two weeks.

For county-level case forecasts made over the last 6 weeks in Texas for which observed data are now available, the 95% prediction intervals covered the truth 81% of the time and the 50% prediction intervals covered the truth 54% of the time. The forecasts on average over the last 6 weeks predicted values that were lower than the observed data.

Looking at the rates allows for easier comparison across counties, where you can see which counties have had or are predicted to have propoportionally higher rates in comparison to other counties. These tables calculate the weekly case count and rate of reported COVID-19 cases in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last week(August 29, 2021 to September 04, 2021) and two weeks ahead (September 12, 2021 to September 18, 2021).

When interpreting probability of an increase, it’s important to note that the increase or decrease is relative to the location-specific recent observed incidence, which varies across locations.

Methods & Acknowledgement

This report was reproducibly and dynamically generated using RMarkdown. The code for the report can be found here.